Twenty years after the peaceful split of the Soviet Union, the Communist Party of Russia has made significant gains in the Russian parliamentary elections and has doubled the share of its votes.

In the Sunday’s elections, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has returned to power with a slashed majority in the State Duma, lower house of the Russian Parliament.  United Russia is likely to form a coalition government with Liberal Democrats who have got the third position.

However, the real victor in the 2011 elections is the Communist Party of Russia. It has bagged nearly 20 percent of the total vote. In some regions, the Communist Party has scored 25 percent of the vote.

Another socialist party, Fair Russia Party, got 13.2 percent of the national vote. Overall there was 15 to 20 percent shift towards parties on the Left and nearly half of the voters supported Leftist parties.

The total number of seats in the State Duma is 450 which are divided among parties on the basis of their share of vote. The parties must get at least seven percent of the national vote in order to have seats in the State Duma.

Based on this formula, in the new State Duma, United Russia will have around 238 seats down from 315, which it had got following the 2007 elections. The Communist Party will have 90 seats up from 57 seats that it had in the outgoing Duma.

Anti-Putin Western media seem jubilant. They are saying that Putin is losing control and is no longer Russia’s strong man. They claim that voters have rebuked Putin. Nevertheless, Western commentators do not acknowledge the fact that Russian voters have voted for Communists as an alternate option and not for a pro-Western party. Therefore Western rejoicing is pointless.

Vladimir Putin is still the most popular politician in Russia. During his 12 years in power he and his party have brought peace and economic stability. Also under his leadership Russia has emerged as a powerful state on the world stage. And the current Duma elections results show that the Russian public has faith in Putin, who is very likely to be elected Russia’s President again in March 2012.

Even so it is a fact that the share of United Russia Party vote has dropped. In 2007 Duma elections, United Russia had got nearly 64 percent of the total votes. Now it has got slightly under 50 percent of the votes and will have 77 fewer seats in the new State Duma.

In the last 20 years, new middle and upper middle classes have emerged in Russia. Putin’s liberal economic policies have been paying off and Russian economy boomed due to commodity exports. Russia has paid back almost all of its foreign debt. Many Russians have benefited from the economic opportunities and prosperity. Standard of living has improved so is the lifestyle of many Russians.

A large number of world’s superrich are Russians now. There has been a dramatic increase in the number of luxury houses, apartments, cars and high lifestyle. Average per month rent for a one-bed apartment in the Moscow city center is USD 1,000 and above. The price of an apartment of the same size is USD 250,000. And with an income of USD 5,000 per month a couple living in Moscow can hardly meet ends. This makes Moscow one of the most expensive and lavish cities in the world. Today Moscow is very different than what it looked like in the Soviet period. Many older Muscovites are not used to hassle and bustle of new life and feel stressed.

Russian economy largely depends on revenues from the exports of natural resources. Industrial sector is in decline since the end of the Soviet Union. During the Soviet times agriculture was strong and collective farming provided for all the population. The USSR was also sending food grains to its allies. However, after the end of collective farms and privatization of lands many people have given up farming and have sold their farms to property developers and real state investors.

Rural population has been migrating to Russia’s 35 major cities as economic opportunities shrank in rural areas. The migration to urban centers has caused social problems and life is getting tougher in cities.

People in villages and small towns feel hardships due to lack of economic opportunities and growing inequality. They have been paying the price of Russian transformation from a simple and virgin society to a complex and competitive Capitalist one.

A large number of Russians are middle-aged and elderly people and slow population growth is a problem in Russia. The majority of Russians grew up in the Soviet Union and benefited from a welfare system that offered free housing, education and healthcare. Jobs were guaranteed and secure in the Soviet Union and life of ordinary citizens was calm, peaceful and full of certainty.

The Communist Party had led the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and had created the Soviet Union but by 1991, the Communist Party of Soviet Union (CPSU) was considered a lethargic, bureaucratic and corrupt organization. It had lost the ability to lead the country and was suspended in the summer of 1991. Many Russians believed that the cause of their miseries and problems was the CPSU and its policies. After 1991, Communist Parties in many former Soviet States remained disillusioned, condemned and outcast. But as time passed and ruthlessness of Capitalism unfolded, many in the former Soviet Space, particularly in the Russian Federation felt nostalgic about the Soviet Union and Communist Party.

Meanwhile, the Communist Party of Russia re-invented itself and learnt from the mistakes of the CPSU. Its leader Gennady Zyuganov says that the new Communist Party is different than its Soviet predecessor. Now the Russian Communist Party is connected with people. It has become a voice of dissatisfied and discontent people, especially the elderly, pensioners and industrial workers.

One of Russia’s major problems is the steady drop in the population. Retirement age in the country is 60 years for men and 55 for women, which means that each year more people reach to retirement age and are not replaced by workforce. At the moment, the number of pensioners in Russia is about 25 percent of the workforce. It can double in the next 15 to 20 years.

Russia has allocated USD 45.7 billion to its pension fund. It is a big chunk of the country’s budget but despite the allocation of such an amount each pensioner gets just about USD 300 per month from the state. This amount is not enough to cover living costs as prices of food and utilities have been increasing. Russian winters are harsh and meeting living costs and coping with extreme cold in 300 U.S. dollars monthly pension is difficult for pensioners.

In this backdrop, the Communist Party promised free housing, free healthcare and free education for all. These slogans have been very attractive to people because not very long ago under the Communist Party rule everybody had such services and facilities for free. As the number of pensioners tend to grow, the vote base of the Communist Party of Russia is also likely to expand.

There are hundreds and thousands of industrial workers, engineers, technicians and other skilled people. They feel neglected and redundant because of an economy that relies on extracting natural resources and commodity exports. The Communist Party has addressed the concerns of industrial workers by saying that it will renationalize state institutions particularly energy sector and revenues from energy will go to a national fund that will be owned by the state. The Party also is addressing concerns of agriculture workers and the youth.

Many people in the Soviet Union did not like the atheist policies of the CPSU and its suppression of religion. The Communist Party of Russia has shed that image, too. The Party says that it accepts and respects faith and has been trying hard to build bridges with Orthodox Church.

Restoring the past glory of Russia has been strong campaign slogans of United Russia and the Communist Party. Untied Russia presents Vladimir Putin as a symbol of Russian pride. A man who has restored Russian honor and image due to his strong policies. The Communist Party, on the other hand, wants to bring back the power and prestige that Russia enjoyed during the Soviet time.

In the near future Communist Party is not likely to rule Russia but will remain the second major player in Russian politics and will influence the country’s domestic and foreign policies.

Shiraz Paracha is a journalist and analyst. He can be reached at: shiraz_paracha@hotmail.com

Imran Khan’s successful public rally in Lahore has made many tongues to wag. Political analysts are now forced to revise their earlier estimates about Imran Khan’s potential to create a niche for himself in the existing political set up in Pakistan. The most notable impact of Imran Khan’s jalsa has been on the politics of Punjab, especially in its urban centres, considered till recently Nawaz Sharif’s stronghold. In this article an attempt has been made to bring into focus the possible changes which might take place in the electoral politics of the central Punjab during the coming elections. Therefore, I will first trace the trajectory of electoral politics in Punjab since 1946 to demonstrate the transformations that have taken place in the society and polity of Punjab and how have these changes been reflected in the electoral fortunes of various leaders and political parties over a period of time. It will help us establish a framework whereby the dynamics of changing patterns in the electoral history of the Punjab could be delineated so as to make an informed study about the possible changes in the political landscape of the central Punjab with the advent of Imran Khan as a key player.

1946

Till 1940, the Unionist Party was the single most influential party in Punjab. It comprised of land-holding elites drawn from all religious communities of the Punjab. Their loyalty towards the British rulers was unflinching and they extended all possible cooperation to them in the war efforts on the occasions of two world wars. The British reciprocated by decorating them with medals and honours, and granting them lucrative tracts of land in canal colony districts which helped them to not only sustain rather enhance their power and prestige over the local populace. It was, hence, a mutually symbiotic relationship.

Political situation changed after the commencement of the Second World War. As Congress did not cooperate with war efforts, the British government turned to its traditional allies among the aristocracy.  Muslim League sided with the British government on the plea that Nazi Germany and its allies were common enemies of the whole of civilized world. While prominent leaders of the Congress were incarcerated, Muslim League was given a relatively free hand. It was done so as to dilute the significance of Congress in the Indian politics or at least among the Muslim majority areas from where bulk of military recruitment and resources were being drawn. Muhammad Ali Jinnah used the political vacuum to his advantage and re-organized his party and successfully mustered support for its agenda at the grass root level. His popularity reached its zenith at the time of the historic event in 1940 when Muslim League held its annual meeting in Minto Park Lahore. Such a powerful show of strength was followed by intense membership drives throughout Punjab and North India in which students of Aligarh Muslim University and other colleges played an active role. As Tahir Kamran has noted in his well-researched article on the elections of 1946 that such slogans as Muslim hai tu Muslim League mai aa were raised to gain sympathy for Muslim League and the cause espoused by it. Thus, Muslim League, under the charismatic leadership of Jinnah, emerged as a party which outsmarted all its rivals. It had the vibrant support of youth and, most importantly, an agenda for the rights of Muslims which touched a chord among overwhelming majority of Muslims in India. Because of these factors, the Unionist Party felt threatened. They could see the winds of change blowing in the direction of Muslim League. Therefore, many among them shifted their loyalties from Unionist Party to Muslim League. Despite all his charisma and popular support, Jinnah could not have won elections in Punjab without the support of Daultanas and Mamdots. This was also because of the fact that the urban base in Punjab was narrow and the franchise was limited.

Muslim League grabbed 73 out of 86 Muslim seats in Punjab and only a few of Muslim Unionists were able to retain their seats. These

Khizr Hayat Tiwana became a non-entity in Punjab politics post creation of Pakistan

results were in stark contrast with the elections held in 1937 when Muslim League had managed to win just two seats of which at least one was from an urban area (Malik Barkat Ali from Lahore and Raja Ghazanfar Ali Khan from Rawalpindi who later crossed floor to Unionist party to earn the stigma of lota for the first time in Punjab’s electoral history). This was indeed a radical reversal in electoral fortune for Muslim League at the expense of Unionist Party. But even after the elections of 1946, Muslim League was unable to form a ministry in Punjab as Khizr Hayat Tiwana mustered support from Akali and Congress party to keep himself afloat as the premier of Punjab. It should be noted here that while all the Unionists shifted loyalties before the elections of 1946 (such as Mumtaz Daultana) or after the creation of Pakistan (such as Muzaffar Ali Khan Qizilbash) and became prominent leaders of Muslim League, Tiwana remained committed to his stance which opposed the creation of a separate state in the name of religion at the expense of centuries old pluralist traditions which had kept Hindus, Muslims and Sikhs together. After 1947, Khizr Hayat Tiwana became a non-entity in the politics of Punjab and spent the rest of his life in political wilderness. 

1970

First general elections in Pakistan at the national level with universal franchise took place in 1970. In these elections, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto emerged victorious in West Pakistan by winning 82 out of 138 seats whereas Sheikh Mujibur Rehman grabbed 158 out of 160 seats in East Pakistan. While reasons for Mujeeb’s absolute victory are understandable, the Bhutto phenomenon has intrigued historians and political scientists.

In the late 1960s, after resigning from the cabinet in anticipation of public outcry against the provisions of a peace agreement with India at Tashkent, Bhutto led a political campaign against Ayub Khan’s martial law regime. The so-called era of reforms and progress under Ayub Khan had led to industrialization and mechanization of farming practices in Pakistan. But the dividends of this economic development were unevenly distributed. A select elite comprising of 22 families – a figure popularized by economist Mehbub-ul-Haq – was widely believed to be holding 80% of country’s wealth and resources. In addition, the burgeoning urban based middle classes were now yearning for a fair share in the political decision-making.  It was also the high point of leftist movements in Pakistan. At no other point in Pakistan’s history were the leftists more active and politically relevant. The leftist intellectuals were instrumental in the political successes achieved by Bhutto. The likes of J. Rahim, Mubashir Hassan and Sheikh Rashid were among the founding members of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) who drafted its manifesto and painted it reddish with the slogan “Democracy is our politics, Socialism is our economy and Islam is our religion.” What benefited Bhutto the most was his ability – and that of his key advisers like Rahim and Mubashir Hassan – to transform Peoples Party as an umbrella organization in which various splinter groups with leftist leanings were incorporated.

Peoples Party emerged, to the surprise of everyone else, as the most popular political party in the central Punjab. In the elections of 1970, out of the total tally of 82 seats, 62 were won in the Punjab, 18 in Sindh and 1 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Thus, Punjab was the epicentre of Peoples Party electoral sweep in West Pakistan. Within Punjab, it was the central region of the province with its urban base which went Bhutto’s way. As reported by Andrew Wilder, Bhutto won 50.8% of popular vote in central Punjab and 43 out of 44 seats – more than double the seats that he won nationwide.

Just like Muslim League in the 1940s, Bhutto’s electoral strategy had the right ingredients. He was a charismatic leader and brilliant speechmaker. He realized that there was a political vacuum in West Punjab which he was able to fill with an ideology which struck a chord with the poor and the emerging middle classes who had been denied a fair share in the benefits accruing from economic progress in Pakistan during the 1960s. Most importantly, he had a dedicated cadre of young but experienced leftist workers who carried out his campaign in an efficient manner. Unlike Muslim League, however, Bhutto did not have the support of influential feudal figures in rural Punjab. It was more because such traditional power holders could not foresee the prospects of Bhutto’s electoral sweep. Hence they demurred to side with him in the elections of 1970. Needless to say, those who won on Peoples Party ticket,  were, thus far, political non-entities though they were well qualified and had years of experience working at grass root level. But they succeeded simply

A youngish Dr. Javed Iqbal was beaten by ZAB in 1970 elections

because they were ticket holders of PPP and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. It was no small achievement that a Sindhi feudal Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was able to defeat farzand-i-Iqbal Dr Javed Iqbal from his home constituency in Lahore! This phenomenal success popularised the adage that even if Bhutto had awarded a ticket to a khamba (electric pole), people would have voted for it. Ironically however, by the time elections of 1977 took place, Bhutto, swayed by political exigencies, relied heavily on traditional feudal families of Punjab. Instead of committed party workers and leftist cadres, Bhutto accommodated traditional elites. This was one key factor in disenchantment of the various leftist groups and individuals within PPP.

1990 and 1993

Bhutto’s performance in central Punjab during the election of 1970 was repeated by Islami Jamhuri Ittihad (IJI) – a conglomeration of rightwing political parties formed at the behest of establishment – led by Nawaz Sharif in 1990. It was a radical reversal in fortune. While in 1970 a conglomerate of various leftist groups had swept the polls, the same feat was repeated by IJI in 1990 when it also grabbed 50.8% of the total vote and 51 out of 60 seats in central Punjab. What can explain this extraordinary change in the electoral fortunes of the central Punjab? The foremost explanation is the role played by Pakistan’s Establishment which provided unlimited funds to coalesce an alliance of anti-PPP political parties. Through the rightwing Urdu press, a smear campaign was launched against Benazir Bhutto and her spouse Asif Zardari. The same press built Nawaz Sharif’s stature as an alternative national leader.

But more than anything else it was the policy of nationalization followed by Bhutto and Islamization by Zia-ul-Haq which had definite impact in bringing about a decisive transformation in the society and polity of urban Punjab. In the initial phase of nationalization policy, Bhutto targeted the filthy rich – the proverbial 22 families against whom he had led a charged rhetoric in his election campaign. Nationalizing banking sector and large industrial estates was, hence, a populist move which greatly added to Bhutto’s political power. But his later round of nationalization which targeted small and medium enterprises had disastrous fallout. While Bhutto became a messiah for the poor through these reforms, he lost – it seems forever – the support of newly urbanized industrial middle classes. Those who were hit by these reforms comprised mainly of migrant families who had, after decades of struggle, established their businesses as they were forced to forsake their homes and hearths as well as source of livelihood in India at the time of partition. The best example of such a migrant family was that of Nawaz Sharif. When an anti-Bhutto alliance was formed in the elections of 1977, it drew support – both political and financial – from those financially hurt by Bhutto’s policies. When Zia-ul-Haq came to power, these traders and businessmen threw in their lot with him as he gradually pursued a policy of de-nationalization whereby industrial units were given back to their original owners. Furthermore, Zia used the slogan of Islam to legitimize his rule. As positivist tradition in sociology suggests, newly urbanized classes – uprooted from their rural background and traditional clan ties – seek comfort and new associational patterns in religious observances and gatherings. Zia’s Islamization, therefore, received wide support from newly urbanized Punjabis.

Nawaz Sharif got the necessary space courtesy Zia ul Haq

Zia’s legacy of an Islamized society and support for trading classes was inherited by Nawaz Sharif who was ideally suited to such a designation. He was a scion of a migrant, business family steeped in traditional and religiously conservative ethos. He cashed on anti-PPP and pro-Islam vote bank to the maximum. As prime minister between 1990-92, Nawaz Sharif initiated a whole new era of liberal economic reforms which eased restrictions of capital transfer, facilitated industrial credit and loans and focused on building communication infrastructure. A policy of privitization was also quite vigorously pursued. These policies brought about a period of short-lived economic boom which greatly benefited the industrial base in the central Punjab and helped transform many medium sized industrial units into huge commercial enterprises. The benefits of this economic boom also trickled down to the trading classes in general. This established Nawaz Sharif as the single most popular figure in urban Punjab, especially among the trader community. In the elections of 1993 in which he had briefly fallen out of favour with the Establishment, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N percentage of vote was greater than its rivals in the central Punjab. PML-N won 46.6% of vote in comparison to 46.1% won by PPP and its allies. Still, PML-N managed to get only 28 seats while 31 seats went to PPP and its allies. But PML-N’s sweep of the urban constituencies in places like Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala, Sialkot and Sheikhurpura was almost complete. This was despite the fact that an influential portion of PML-N’s rightwing vote was sliced off by Jamat-i-Islami which, instead of keeping an electoral alliance in the form of IJI, fought the election on its own under the banner of Islamic Front.

The urban centres of the Punjab remained supportive of rightwing and pro-Establishment PML-N between 1990 and 1997. Since 1999, PML-N – especially Nawaz Sharif – turned anti-Establishment after his own government was toppled in a military coup and he was imprisoned and later exiled to Saudi Arabia. For the first time, it became possible for a popular leader of the Punjab to raise tirade against the military. While other provinces had all suffered because of military’s role – whether in politics or because of its operations in the name of suppressing nationalists – Punjab had remained pro-military throughout the history of Pakistan. Till now Nawaz Sharif is holding on to his anti-Establishment rhetoric. His statements provide ample testimony to his anti-establishment stance in which he has asked for a commission to be constituted for the probe into Kargil fiasco and lashed out at the military leadership for its failure on Osama Bin Laden. Will he be able to continue with such an anti-Establishment rhetoric after a radical change seems imminent in the politics of urban Punjab by Imran Khan?

2012 or 2013

Till the beginning of 2011, Nawaz Sharif was still the most popular leader in Punjab. But now change in the Punjab politics seems in the offing. After his successful public rally in Lahore, Imran Khan has suddenly been catapulted to the national scene as an alternative leader. His coming out of the political wilderness and assuming the centre stage was on the cards for quite some time. His rise to this level of popularity has reminded many of the successful electoral campaigns of Jinnah and Bhutto. There are some reasons for such a sudden change. First, there is a political vacuum of sorts. Nawaz Sharif has had flak for being too friendly an opposition. His party despite controlling 60% of Pakistan is putting all the onus of the current mess squarely on the shoulders of PPP alone. Secondly, there has been widespread resentment against the Zardari government yet Nawaz Sharif has not capitalized on it. He probably is shying away to launch a movement against PPP, saying that he will not revert to the politics of confrontation reminiscent of the 90s. Thirdly, and most importantly, anti-American sentiments have soared to an unprecedented level. PML-N, as the main opposition party, could not come up with a clear stance on the war against terror. In this situation, Imran Khan is the only political figure who has a clear agenda no matter how much one dislikes or disagrees with that agenda. He is saying things which touch a chord among vast majority of Pakistanis. His anti-American rhetoric is high-pitched and he is using such innovative methods of public spectacles as overnight dharnas to convey these feelings. Like Jinnah’s idea of a separate state for Muslims and Bhutto’s slogan of roti kapra makan, Imran Khan too has conjured up political slogans which might be vague and (unlike Bhutto) extremely rightwing, but they have mass appeal. As far as masses in general are concerned, the ability to transform political slogans into effective policy measure is relevant only once the protagonist is elected into power.

Like Jinnah and Bhutto, Khan too has a dedicated set of followers. While Bhutto politicized the masses, Imran Khan has become the only person in Pakistan’s history who has successfully drawn the upper middle and elite interested into politics – at least temporarily. There are other differences between Bhutto and Imran Khan as well. Bhutto was left leaning while Imran Khan has gravitated to the rightwing. Most importantly, Bhutto rose to political power by championing an anti-Establishment cause. Khan, on the other hand, is advancing a cause which corresponds quite explicitly with the strategic purposes of the Establishment.

Imran Khan is fully cognizant of the importance of social media for propagating his political ideology. In this regard, the overwhelming majority of the “clicking youth” is supporting him. They can be found all over the web and they religiously project Imran Khan as a beacon of hope and change in Pakistan. What is disturbing, however, is that they resort to almost fascist tactics in silencing their critics through abuse and threat (Imran Khan is personally responsible for such behaviour because in his public speeches and interviews, he uses a similar language of ridicule and abuse). This is because large majority of these dedicated cadres of Imran Khan do not have any genuine training in politics nor do they have much of an idea about the history of Pakistani politics. It is because of their ignorance about politics that they are unable to see that Imran Khan’s agenda is vague, problematic or potentially disastrous for Pakistan. For them he is simply an iconic figure who is untainted from allegations of corruption and will bring about much needed radical change. Due to this lack of firm grounding in politics, many commentators are dismissive of the efficacy of this cadre in the electoral politics of Pakistan. Contrary to what many observers believe, I think these clicking youth may be politically naive and hail from a “burger” background, but they will definitely vote for Imran Khan in the coming elections. Previously this class of voters had predominantly been apolitical but this time they will turn up to vote for Imran Khan and will use social media effectively to make sure that each one of them exercise his/her right to vote.

There are two major sources of electoral power which Imran Khan has been able to tap successfully. First are the Pakistani middle class professionals (lawyers, doctors, MBAs, IT experts) and upper middle class or elites. Ever since Bhutto transformed Pakistani politics by empowering the masses, these elites and professional classes have been at a loss. They do not find popular politics amenable to their tastes. It is because this mode of politics limits the chances of these elites to play an effective role in politics. They usually look down upon the ability of the masses to exercise their right to vote in a rational manner. These elites had always prospered during autocratic regimes such as those of Ayyub Khan and Parvez Musharraf which accommodated ‘technocrats’ in various ministries and government organizations. Hence, there is no coincidence that these elites (along with upper middle classes and professionals) – before joining the bandwagon of Imran Khan – were enthusiastic supporters of Parvez Musharraf. For these elites and professional classes, Benazir Bhutto and Asif Zardari were too corrupt and Nawaz Sharif too boorish for their tastes. Imran Khan is equipped with not only charisma but also has a clean financial past, rightwing anti-American rhetoric and a degree from Oxford – all the traits admired by Pakistan’s middle or upper middle class. Most importantly, unlike Ayyub and Parvez, Imran Khan has the chance to bring about a bourgeoisie revolution in Pakistan through electoral means. In other words, as my colleague Umber Ibad puts it, “the question of the possibility of revolutionary change by Elites is successfully making resistance against elitism redundant.” Perhaps for the first time in many decades, the elites, professional and middle classes will determine the outcome of the elections through their votes. The spectacle created at the PTI jalsa was the highest point ever for elitist politics in Pakistan. It might set in motion a domino effect possibly affecting the lower middle classes (if not the poorest) into believing that since the elites and privileged sections (i.e. most educated) are supporting Imran Khan, he is inevitably the right choice. But at least for now, in the words of Imtiaz Alam, Imran Khan does not have the support of bazar and the poor. The bazar (small and medium traders) side with Nawaz Sharif in central Punjab and the poor are divided in their loyalty towards PPP and PML-N.

Punjab = World for Imran Khan

The second major source of popular vote for Imran are young voters in Pakistan. It is this newly created vote bank on the basis of which Imran Khan claims to have brought about a ‘tsunami of change’ in Pakistan. Of all the political parties and its leadership, he saw the potential of tapping this huge reservoir of political support. Just a few months back, videos and photos glorifying Imran Khan for such feats as winning the world cup, building a cancer hospital and sleeping on the floor along with other participants of a dharna against US drone attacks started getting viral on social networking sites. Impressed with what he was doing, the clicking youth picked up Imran Khan as a “cause” in the same way they had taken up the cause of, lets say, “Justice for Aiman Malik” and “Justice for Mughees and Muneeb”. It was a classical rendition of “Rang de Basanti” kind of youth activism. The young ones felt important by acting as a krantikari for Imran Khan’s cause and hence contributing something positive to Pakistan as patriotic citizens.

Other than his “own” vote bank, there is also a question whether Imran Khan will be able to take a big chunk of rightwing vote bank belonging to PML-N in central Punjab (lower middle class, traders etc mentioned above) – at least in main urban centres especially Lahore. Since this article is limited to a study of urban Punjab alone, I would not discuss in detail the electoral prospects of PTI in other parts of Punjab and Pakistan. At the most, about rural Punjab, I would simply repeat that even Jinnah was not able to win the elections in rural Punjab without the support of Daultanas and Mamdots. A gathering in Minto Park Lahore was not enough. Imran Khan is cognizant of this fact. Already leading families from South Punjab like Khakwani, Leghari, Qureshi and Tareen are lining up to forge an alliance with PTI. Since 1970, such influential families with a “guaranteed vote bank” have learnt a valuable lesson. They are careful to feel the public pulse before time. Mostly, however, they join a political force whose fortune is favoured by the Establishment.  If this trend continues then Imran Khan will have little to worry about the prospects of his electoral success in South Punjab even though it would mean accommodating tried and tested politicians.

This brings me to my main point about electoral prospects for PTI in central Punjab and the portion of rightwing votes sliced off from PML-N. I think Imran Khan is overestimating the importance of Lahore. Lahore is no longer as significant as it used to be in 1970. Back then Lahore gave an intellectual lead because of the predominance of Urdu print media in Lahore. Now the sources of information have become manifold. People are no longer dependent on newspapers and journals to develop an informed political opinion. Even within the politics of Punjab, regional power players do not necessarily take cue from what is happening in Lahore. Therefore, it is naive on part of Imran Khan to think that he will be able to repeat what Bhutto achieved in 1970 simply by establishing Lahore as citadel of its political support. At the same time, however, one cannot underestimate the importance of Lahore either. After all it is the Lahore jalsa which has made people talk about Imran Khan and take him seriously for the first time in 15 years. This is no small an achievement in itself and will go a long way in helping him lay foundations for his political party.

My point is that on the basis of one jalsa alone, it is too early to predict whether Imran Khan will be able to grab a major chunk of PML-N’s rightwing vote bank. It will depend on several factors.

First, Imran Khan is largely seen as yet another venture by Pakistani Establishment to keep itself dominant in the political process of Pakistan. Ever since Nawaz Sharif turned anti-Establishment, there had been a slot open for grab to anyone who could prove his popularity in which Establishment could consider investing its resources. Imran Khan may not be a direct recipient of funds (at least there is no documentary evidence from now; in case of IJI as well such evidence only emerged a decade after its formation) from the Establishment but there are several in his party who are well-known for such activities in the past. This includes, most prominently, General Hamid Gul and Mian Muhammad Azhar. It is possible that Imran Khan has turned a blind eye to such transactions and hoping to severe such links once he achieves desired political acclaim, support and popularity.

Secondly, it is also questionable whether the Establishment would risk building Imran Khan as a highly popular leader at the national level and not just in Punjab. On one hand the Establishment does realize the importance of a national leader for the benefit of the federation but at the same time it would be vary of ‘creating’ a figure who will, most certainly, grow out of its influence once fully established. Till now, most commentators thought of Imran Khan as a ploy by Establishment to achieve a fractured mandate in the coming elections so as to ensure that no single political party or popular leadership emerges to challenge its authority. Whether Imran Khan will be catapulted into a national leader or reduced to a status where he simply divides the electorate, will become evident during the coming months. In case the first strategy is adopted by the Establishment, we might see such developments as droves of ‘electables’ from influential families in Sindh  (such as Mehr, Shirazi, Jatoi, Sumroo etc who do not depend on PPP for an electoral victory) join PTI; close to elections, nationalist groups in Baluchistan might boycott the elections allowing the incumbent group of ‘representatives’ win the elections once again; MQM might follow the same pattern for either national or provincial elections; overseas Pakistanis are given a right to vote which would mean another one million voters for Imran Khan; there is an intensification of corruption scandals against Zardari and Sharif brothers; (possibly a disqualification as well); bye-election is held on some urban constituency in Punjab in which PTI candidate sweeps the poll against PML-N and so on. But if the latter course of action is favoured by Establishment then it might become evident through such means as a major financial scandal accusing leading PTI members or even charges of embezzlement in the charity run by Imran Khan. This will cut Imran Khan down to size and provide a levelled playing field for all the political parties in the coming elections so as to achieve a fractured mandate.

Thirdly, there are also reports are in circulation suggesting that Saudi Arabia wants PML-N and PTI to join their forces against PPP and its “Shiite” leader Asif Zardari. If this happens, then it would bring a premature end to Nawaz Sharif’s brief stint as a champion of anti-Establishment politics in Punjab. Even if he does not enter into alliance, it is certain that PTI will prosper with the support of Establishment. In either case, Punjab would be the main loser as it will yet again miss the opportunity to be consistent in its efforts against the Establishment. Needless to say that such an alliance would be disastrous not only for Imran Khan but for the progressive political forces of Pakistan as well.

Fourthly, the possibility of Imran Khan’s entering into an alliance with Jamat-i-Islami also lurks at the horizon. Both share their thoughts on the issue of the war against terrorism. It may slightly scuttle his popularity among the elite sections but it may be compensated with an added support he might muster from Islamist groups, especially in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

Finally, there is another scenario – which seems most likely and feasible for Imran Khan – in which PTI takes a solo flight. Unlike other commentators, I believe if the elections are held now, Imran Khan has a fair chance of establishing his dominance by denting PML-N’s vote bank. Currently the political ambience is favourably poised for him and there is wild optimism in the air. As the time progresses, some of Imran Khan’s supporters might lose faith in him as he starts making political compromises by inducting tried and tested leaders from other parties like Abdul Aleem Khan whose past is  tainted with scandals of massive corruption. Obviously it is unrealistic to expect that Imran Khan will be able to scrutinize credentials of all those who wish to become part of PTI. But then it should also be noted that there is no way Imran Khan was completely oblivious of the credentials of some of the prominent politicians who have recently joined his party. If Imran Khan is taking such a high moral ground against corruption in politics, there is no margin for error for him. This is the price that he will have to pay for maintaining his reputation. Even a slight blemish on the financial record of any key leader of PTI will get noticed and highlighted by the opponents of Imran Khan to prove that he or his party are no different from other political parties. Those who hold pointing figures on others with an arrogant sense of moral superiority are reprimanded more severely if caught cheating even on a minor scale.

The kind of rhetoric employed by Khan against his opponents till recently and an irreconcilable and uncompromising attitude he has betrayed over the years will badly hurt his reputation once, under the compulsions of power politics, he starts making political adjustments and compromises (for example dealing with MQM in urban Sindh, especially Karachi). Already Imran Khan has become politically more pragmatic while his supporters are still idealists and relatively naive about real politik. After his successful public gathering in Lahore, a tired Imran Khan was asked by a journalist whether he will consider entering into an alliance with Nawaz Sharif. Even before the reporter had finished his question, Khan’s supporter standing behind him started nodding his head in negative. But Imran Khan, on the other hand, responded that he might consider it provided Nawaz Sharif declares his real assets. This is just an indication that there is already a yawning gap between the political pragmatism of Imran Khan and naive idealism of his followers who worship him as an idol of hope, change and clean politics in Pakistan.

Concluding Remarks

Is Imran Khan right in predicting that he will be able to repeat the performance of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in the next coming elections? It would mean that any khamba with a PTI ticket will win elections in the central Punjab. If not 1970, will it then be a performance similar to one achieved by Jinnah in the elections of 1946? It would mean that Imran Khan allows entry of traditional power elites from rural areas which might discredit some of his credibility among the upper middle and elite classes. Or will it be a performance similar to that of Nawaz Sharif in the elections of 1990 whereby he swept the polls thanks to the backing of Establishment? Or is it just sound and fury signifying nothing? The elections of 1946 drove Tiwana to political wilderness and Bhutto’s electoral sweep in 1970 brought an end to Daultana’s relevance in the politics of Punjab. If Imran Khan is able to repeat the performance of Jinnah or Bhutto, a similar fate awaits Nawaz Sharif.

At the moment, however, only one thing is certain: for Imran Khan and PTI it is now or never. As a concluding remark I would simply say that in case of a solo flight from PTI in an election which takes place during the next few months, the results might astonish all political parties and analysts. Another way in which Imran Khan can come to power is possible if no elections take place!

About the author: Ali Usman Qasmi is a PhD in South Asian History from the University of Heidelberg and author of Questioning the Authority of the Past: The Ahl al-Quran Movements in the Punjab (Karachi: Oxford University Press).

On 2nd May 2011 evening, PPP ultimately joined hands with PML(Q) and offered them 18 slots in executive allocating them different assignments, mostly carrying ministreal perks. The young generation knows them little from days of Gen Musharraf when they remained in shared power with a military ruler but more after assassination of Ms Benazir Bhutto who had nominated them as her ‘killers’.

However, PML(Q) has its own history; who brought them in power and how were they favoured, is altogether a different scanario. What has been the role of ISI in that political maneuverring can be understood from an archived essay reproduced below. It is for the education of our younger lots.

This essay was written by someone else, but the reference pointing towards (mis)deeds of ISI was published on 24th February 2008, in SUN of India, under the title ‘Major General who rigged Pakistan 2002 polls, spills the beans’ written by Sahil Nagpal.

Inam R Sehri (rajpoots@hotmail.co.uk)

It is generally perceived that the PM Z A Bhutto dragged the ISI in the politics. It is widely spread that it was Bhutto who had first time assigned political tasks to the ISI in Pakistan. It is not the whole truth. Actually it was the Field Marshal Ayub Khan who had used ISI to seek political motives during his presidential rule in the backdrop of his growing distrust in the Intelligence Bureau due to the presence of Bengali officers. When war broke out in Kashmir in mid 1965, Ayub Khan had started feeling a collapse of the operations of all the intelligence agencies including ISI because the agencies were concentrating on the surveillance of possible domestic political activities against him.

In the words of wajid Shamsul Hassan, ‘the covert infiltration plan in the Indian-occupied Kashmir, codenamed Operation Gibraltar –a brainchild of GHQ and ISI turned out to be an intelligence fiasco.

According to analysts ISI had overestimated so-called “local support” to Pakistani commandos in Kashmir and underestimated the Indian response to the plan. The ISI’s colossal failure got exposed when Operation Gibraltar met reverses and the Indians—in order to teach Ayub a lesson—broadened the theatre of war beyond Kashmir into
Pakistani territory. What added insult to Ayub’s injury was the failure of ISI to locate the Indian armored division that had sneaked into a position when Lahore could have fallen to the Indian Army it without much ado.’

In a top brass meeting, Ayub Khan pulled up the then ISI chief Brigadier Riaz making him responsible for ISI’s failure to locate a whole Indian armoured division that caused loss of hundreds of commandos in the Operation Gibraltar. Brig Riaz flatly told that ‘it was busy keeping surveillance on his political opponents’.

Wajid Shamsul Hassan adds that ‘this was a slap on Ayub’s face and he appointed a committee headed by General Yahya Khan to examine the working of the ISI and other intelligence agencies. The Committee found that ISI had been deeply involved in domestic politics and, had been devoting its time and energy in monitoring the activities of
Ayub’s political opponents’.

Since its first day of independence, the army intelligence units including ISI used to report to the Commander-in-Chief of the Army (C-in-C) as it was natural. After 1958’s Martial Law all the intelligence agencies including Intelligence Bureau were made answerable to the President and Chief Martial Law Administrator. The intelligence agencies then started competing to demonstrate their loyalty to Ayub Khan. All the agencies tried to over take each other in giving Ayub Khan a rosy picture of the country. They kept him in the dark about the freedom movement in former East Pakistan which
ultimately disembarked. The ISI, however, lost its political importance when Z A BHutto assumed power in 1972. He was very critical of its role during the 1970/71 general elections, which triggered off the events leading to the break up of Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh.

In early seventies ISI’s Chief General Jilani gained confidence of Z A Bhutto by divulging to him the conspiracy by General Gul Hasan to overthrow him. This information, true or false, brought Gen Jilani nearer to Z A Bhutto and he ensured that his confidante General Ziaul Haq succeeds Tkika Khan as army chief. Zia ul Haq was given rapid and
unprecedented promotions by Bhutto thus had himself signed his death warrants. Gen Zia ul Haq ‘instead of remaining loyal to his benefactor decided to bite the hand that had fed him fat. He used his ISI to conjure an alliance of different political parties; got PNA formed and ignited a fake movement that looked real to topple Bhutto’.

Gen Zia became all powerful following his coup against Bhutto in July 1977. He expanded its role and made this agency responsible for collection of intelligence about the PPP, with a special focus on organizing ethnic and religious groups in order to divide Sindh’s political power. A golden opportunity then cropped up for both Gen Zia and ISI to become the sole arbiter of power in the region following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. He had Washington and London on
their toes to help him to carry out their jihad. However, with the withdrawal of the Soviet Union from Afghanistan his utility was over but leaving behind a new class of ‘wealthy politicians’ like Humayun Akhter and Ejaz ul Haq whose fathers had minted billions of dollars from American ammunition received for operations against Russians in
Afghanistan.

Another ISI chief Gen Hameed Gul — according to his confession –formed IJI to deny Benazir Bhutto an absolute majority in elections after air–crashed death of Gen Zia ul Haq, to avert what he called ‘democratic dictatorship’. Two sons of a pseudo industrialist Mian Sharif were selected to rule over Punjab. His accomplice, of course, was his boss Gen Aslam Beg who had conceded later before the Supreme Court of Pakistan on 16th June 1997, that he had distributed 140 million Rupees, secretly amongst the Bhutto’s opponents to help PPP’s defeat in elections.

Referring to an interview published on 24th February 2008 in The News, a daily English newspaper of Pakistan, Maj Gen Ehtesham Zamir, the head of the ISI’s political cell in 2002, admitted manipulating the last elections at the behest of President Musharraf and termed the defeat of the King’s party, the PML-Q, this time ‘a reaction of the unnatural dispensation (installed in 2002).’ He categorically emphasized that the ISI together with the NAB was instrumental in
pressing the lawmakers to join the pro-Musharraf camp to form the government to support his stay in power. Looking down back into the memory lane and recalling his blunders which, he admitted, had pushed the country back instead of taking it forward, Zamir felt ashamed of his role and conduct. He was massively embarrassed because he was the
one who negotiated, coerced and did all the dirty work for PML(Q) on orders of Gen Musharraf.

Gen Zamir confirmed that corruption cases were used as pressure tactics to change the loyalties of the lawmakers but: “This tool was used not only by the ISI. The NAB was also involved in this exercise.”

[General elections held on 10th October 2002 were stolen in favour of PML-Q on the orders of Gen Musharraf. The history would remember that Gen Musharraf’s principal secretary Tariq Aziz was given the assignment to deliver a pro-Musharraf parliament. To fulfil this assignment, Tariq Aziz made indiscriminate use of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). Gen Musharraf’s aides, as well as PMLQ leaders, termed the opposition
leaders’ statements as baseless and a lame excuse not to admit their defeat. Despite the ‘riggings’ in the 2002 elections, PMLQ could bag only 69 out of 272 general seats. Therefore, Gen Musharraf had suspended for three days the constitutional clause pertaining to floor-crossing with the result that PMLQ was able to form the government in the centre with Mir Zafrullah Jamali as prime minister of Pakistan.]

The fact remains that the intensity of anti-Musharraf vote did not give the government machinery and the Chaudhrys of Gujrat enough space to carry out massive rigging, however, the ISI managed to do it selectively to give some respectability to PML(Q).

Earlier Gen Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani had also disclosed that majority of the corps commanders, in several meetings, had opposed Musharraf’s decision of patronising the Chaudhrys. Gen Musharraf was repeatedly told that the PML(Q) leaders are the worst politicians who remained involved in co-operative scandals and writing off loans but he never heard their advice. One of Gen Musharraf’s colleagues, who was Chief of the NAB at that time, had even sought permission to put dog collar around the necks of Chaudhrys but he was always refused permission to proceed against them.

The disclosures made by Gulzar Kiyani and Ehtesham Zamir should serve as eye openers for the nation and future planners of the Army rule in Pakistan. Though the recent elections are being described as fairer than 2002, Gen Zamir does not rule out the possibility of 2008 polls being rigged. According to a generally held view, COAS General Ashfaq
Kiyani had ensured army’s non-interference in polls that is why there was comparatively less institutional interference of intelligence agencies this time as compared to the last time.

Major General ® Ehtesham Zamir’s confession should be treated as the last nail in ISI’s coffin if democracy is to be saved, served and strengthened in Pakistan.

Har nayay din ke saath humaaray munsif-e-aala urf Tunno aik aisa tabsara kertay hain ke ke har jamhooriyat pasand shehri baithay bithhaye bilbila uthta hai. Lagta hai Musharraf ki kitab Kakkoo kay Kaarnamay (jisay baaz loag ghalti se In the Line of Fire bhi kehtay hain) ke baad ab nayi kitab Tunnoo ke Tabsaray bhi jald shaya hogi.

ہر نئے دن کے ساتھ ہمارے منصف اعلٰیعرف تنّو ایک ایسا تبصرہ کردیتے ہیں کہ کہ ہر جمہوریت پسند شہری بلبلا اٹھتا ہے۔ لگتا ہے مشرّف کی کتاب “ککّو کے کارنامے(جسے بعض لوگ غلطی سے “ان دی لائن آف فائر” بھی کہتے ہیں) کے بعد اب نئی کتاب “تنّو کے تبصرے” بھی جلد شائع ہوگی۔

Tunnoo ka sab se naya tabsara jo maine Geo News per suna hai aur lihaza jiski sadaaqat ko jhutlaaya nahi jasakta wo yeh hai ke Election Commissioner ko tanbhee kertay huay unhon ne kaha ke uss hudd tak nahi jaana chahtay ke poochhay in jaalee voter liston per aayi assembliyon ki haisiyat kya hai?

تنّو کا سب سے نیا تبصرہ جو میں نے جیو نیوز پر سنا ہے اور لہٰذا جس کی صداقت  کوجھٹلایا نہیں جا سکتا، وہ یہ ہے کہ الیکشن کمیشنر کو تنبیہ کرتے ہوئے انہوں نے کہا کہ اس حد تک نہیں جانا چاہتے کہ پوچھیں “ان جعلی ووٹر لسٹوں پر آئی اسمبلیوں کی حیثیت کیا ہے؟

Ab koi sochta hai ke insaan ki besharmi ki koi hudd hogi tou usay Tunnoo se mila dou. Bhala woh kyun? Tou mulahiza farmayay!

July 2007 jab Tunnoo apni kursi pe mazay se baitha thha Pakistan Peoples Party, Muslim League Nawaz, Pakhtunkhwa Miliawami Party yehan tak ke Muslim League Qaaf bhi voter fehristo ki durustugee ke liye inki adaalat mein gaye thhay. Akhbaar tarashay zel mein hai:

Pak Tribune: Political parties reinforce demand for accuracy of voter lists

The New York Times: Pakistan Court Says All Voters Must Be Listed

BBC World:  Court keeps pressure on Musharraf

اب کوئی سوچتا ہے کہ انسان کی بے شرمی کی بھی کوئی حد ہوگی تو اسے تنّو سے ملا دو، بھلا وہ کیوں؟

تو ملاحظہ فرمائیے!

جولائی ۲۰۰۷ میں جب تنّو اپنی کرسی پہ مزے سے براجمان تھا توپاکستان پیپلز پارٹی، مسلم لیگ نواز، پختون خواہ ملّی عوامی پارٹی،یہاں تک کہ مسلم لیگ قاف بھی ووٹر فہرستوں کی درستگی کے لئے ان کی عدالت میں گئے تھے اس حوالے سے خبروں کے اخباری حوالے درج ذیل ہیں(اوپر ملاخچہ فرمائیے

Iss maslay per kisi ne Suo Moto Notice nahi liya thha balkay voter fehriston ke shayaa honay ke baad BB shaheed ne sab se pehley 26 June 2007 ko isko media mein uthhaya aur kuch din baad saari opposition jamaaton ne iss per ehtajaj ke saath saath adalati kaarwayi ka aghaaz kerwaya.

اس معملے پر کسی نے سوموٹونوٹس نہیں لیا تھا بلکہ ووٹر فہرستوں کے شائع ہونے کے بعد جب بی بی شہید نے سب سے پہلے ۲۶ جون ۲۰۰۷ کو اس کو میڈیا میں اٹھایا اور کچھ دن بعد ساری اپوزیشن جماعتوں نے اس پراحتجاج کے ساتھ عدالتی کاروائی کا آغاز کروایا

Raaton raat 2.8 crore logon ka izafa hogaya aur voters ki tadaad apne mantaqi adad ko ja pohanchi. Iske bawajood PPP, PML-N ne apnay adam-itminaan ka izhaar kerte huay election mein hissa liya aur siyasi jamaaton samaith NGOs bilkhasoos PILDAT ne kaha ke abhi bhi croron logo ka naam fehristo mein nahi hai aur bari taadaad mein jaali naam hain. Tunnoo ne dhai crore voters ki shamooliyat ka sehra khudi apnay aap ko bhi pehnaya aur daad bhi batori. Sawaal yeh hai ke agar yeh voter listein sahi nahi thi tou iska zimmidar kaun hai?

راتوں رات دو کروڑ اسی لاکھ لوگوں کے ناموں کا اضافہ ہوگیااور ووٹرز کی تعداد اپنے منطقی اعداد کو جاپہنچی، اس کے باوجود پی پی پی اور پی ایم ایل۔این نے اپنے عدم اطمینان کا اظہار کرتے ہوئے الیکشن میں حصّہ لیا اورسیاسی جماعتوں سمیت این جی اوز بالخصوص پلڈاٹ نے کہا کہ ابھی بھی کروڑوں لوگوں کے کانام مہرستوں میں نہیں ہے اور بڑی تعداد میں جعلی نام ہیں، تنّو نے ڈھائی کروڑ ووٹرز کی شمولیت کا سہراخودی اپنے آپ کو بھی بندھوایا اور داد بھی بٹوری۔ سوال یہ ہے کہ اگر یہ ووٹر لسٹیں صحیح نہیں ہیں تو اس کا ذمّے دار کون ہے؟

Na tou sadar woh hai, na election commsioner bus nahi badla tou woh Tunnoo hai jiski nazar ke neechay yeh jaali fehristein tayyaar ki gayi, aur Qaaf League ko Quomi Assembly ki 54 nashiston se nawaaza gaya, iske saath Punjab ki bhi aik-chauthhaai seatein Qaaf League ko di gayi. Aur agar Musharaf ke baad kisi ki zimmedaari banti hai tou zehen per ziyada zor daalnay ki zarurat nahi.

نہ تو صدر وہ ہے نہ الیکشن کمشنر، نہیں بدلا تو وہ تنّو ہے جس کی نظر کے نیچھے یہ جعلی فہرستیں تیار کی گئیں، اور قاف لیگ کو قومی اسمبلی کی ۵۴ نشستوں سے نوازا گیا، اس کے ساتھ پنجاب کی بھی ایک چوتھائی سیٹیں قاف لیگ کو دے دی گئیں، اور اگر مشرّف کے بعد کسی کی ذمّہ داری بنتی ہے تو ذہن پر زیادہ زور ڈالنے کی ضرورت نہیں۔

Jin assembliyon per aaj Tunnoo ne ungli uthaker apni maili aankh se dekha hai woh in jaali fehriston ki badaulat nahi in jaali fehriston aur Tunnoo ki na-ehli ke bawajood aayiein hain. Par sharam tou magar aati nahi, lihaza lagay raho Tunno miyaan.

جن اسمبلیوں پر آج تنّو نے اپنی انگلی اٹھا کر اپنی میلی آنکھ سے دیکھا ہے وہ ان جعلی فہرستوں کی بدولت نہیں ان جعلی فہرستوں اور تنّو کی نااہلی کے باوجود آئے ہیں، پربقول غالب

شرم تم کو مگر نہیں آتی

لہٰذا لگے رہو تنّو بھائی

Harf-e-Aakhir: Tunno aik khayali kirdaar hai jiska haqeeqat se koi taaluq nahi, kisi bhi fard ki zindagi se mumasilat mehez ittefaq hai.

Harf-e-Aakhir 2: Yeh bhi batata chaloo ke imaan ke lihaaz se main apnay aap ko salafiyat (wahabiyat) se qareeb samajhta hu tou umeed kerta hu ke jaan bakhshi hojaye gi!

حرف آخر۱: تنّو ایک خیالی کردار ہے جس کا حقیقت سے کوئی تعلّق نہیں، کسی بھی فرد سے مماثلت محض اتّفاقی ہے

حرف آخر۲: یہ بھی بتاتا چلوں کہ مسلک  کے لحاظ سے میں اپنے آپ کو سلفیّت(وہابیت) سے قریب سمجھتا ہوں، تو امّید کرتا ہوں کہ جاں بخشی ہوجائے گی۔ ۔ ۔

اردو کمپوزنگ بشکریہ دانیال لکھنوی

For a review of complete post, visit the following link:
http://chagataikhan.blogspot.com/2010/10/rigging-pakistans-election-justice.html

………

Musharraf’s efforts to keep Bhutto out have been orchestrated for two years by retired brigadier Ijaz Shah, who left Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) to become the president’s chief of civilian intelligence. The ISI, a state within a state, is aligned against Bhutto and would be at the heart of any vote-rigging.

REFERENCE: Rigging Pakistan’s Election? By Robert D. Novak Monday, December 3, 2007

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/02/AR2007120201637.html

CNN: The Secret Bhutto File on Election Rigging in Pakistan
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlcWfQ1P6Mk

Courtesy: videocafeblog | January 01, 2008 – CNN’s report on the secret Bhutto file that accusses the Pakistani government of consipiring to rig the upcoming elections before her death.

Malik Qayyum Admits Rigging
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2faziDhmA_Q

Transcript

Leave Nawaz Sharif(PAUSE)….I think Nawaz Sharif will not take part in the election (PAUSE)…. If he does take part, he will be in trouble. If Benazir takes part she too will be in trouble(PAUSE)… They will massively rig to get their own people to win. If you can get a ticket from these guys, take it (PAUSE)…. If Nawaz Sharif does not return himself, then Nawaz Sharif has some advantage. If he comes himself, even if after the elections rather than before, …..yes…. REFERENCE: Audio – “Pakistan Goes to the Polls” http://www.hrw.org/audio/2008/urdu/pakistan0208.htm

Qayyum ‘was aware of rigging plan’: HRW releases tape By Iftikhar A. Khan and Masood Haider
February 16, 2008 Saturday Safar 08, 1429 http://www.dawn.com/2008/02/16/top6.htm

Tom Malinowski, Washington advocacy director of HRW, when asked by The News that whether his NGO had got this recording from some of its staff here in Pakistan or from some intelligence agency, said that he could not speak about the source. To a question that Pakistani government sees the release of the recording as a conspiracy, he said: “Its silly to talk like that, the government should feel sorry what it has planned for elections.” Malik Qayyum told The News that HRW did not take his version and that it did not know about the identification of the person to which he was talking, which automatically raised questions about the authenticity of the recording.

REFERENCE: Malik Qayyum in new row over rigging By Muhammad Ahmad Noorani AG caught on tape again; denies HRW report Saturday, February 16, 2008

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=12981

A general election was held in Pakistan on 18 February 2008, after being postponed from 8 January 2008. The original date was intended to elect members of the National Assembly of Pakistan, the lower house of the Majlis-e-Shoora (the nation’s parliament). This DAWN News TV Investigation Report was aired just before that election and features people who have affected past elections and Pakistan’s democratic process in many ways including General Ali Kuli Khan Khattak, General Hamid Gul, Maj (Retd) Masood Sharif Khan Khattak, General Roedad Khan, Air Marshall Asghar Khan, Brig Imtiaz Ahmed, Maj Aamir and more. One of the main topics is Midnight Jackals, an operation conducted by the Intelligence Bureau to thwart an attempt to overthrow the democratically elected government of Benazir Bhutto. Other topics include the rigging of elections, involvement of the Pakistan Army in democracy and elections, intelligence agencies involvement in elections and democracy and more.

REFERENCE: DAWN News TV Investigation Report with Masood Sharif – 6th January 2008

http://www.sharifpost.com/2008/01/06/dawn-news-tv-investigation-report/

DAWN 1

[NOTE: Hamid Gul admits that ISI political role was pre Bhutto DAWN News TV Investigation Report with Masood Sharif -- 6th January 2008]

ISLAMABAD: The main wheeler and dealer of the ISI during the 2002 elections, the then Maj-Gen Ehtesham Zamir, now retired, has come out of the closet and admitted his guilt of manipulating the 2002 elections, and has directly blamed Gen Musharraf for ordering so. Talking to The News, the head of the ISI’s political cell in 2002, admitted manipulating the last elections at the behest of President Musharraf and termed the defeat of the King’s party, the PML-Q, this time “a reaction of the unnatural dispensation (installed in 2002).” Zamir said the ISI together with the NAB was instrumental in pressing the lawmakers to join the pro-Musharraf camp to form the government to support his stay in power. Looking down back into the memory lane and recalling his blunders which, he admitted, had pushed the country back instead of taking it forward, Zamir feels ashamed of his role and conduct. Massively embarrassed because he was the one who negotiated, coerced and did all the dirty work, the retired Maj-Gen said he was not in a position to become a preacher now when his own past was tainted. He said the country would not have faced such regression had the political management was not carried out by the ISI in 2002. But he also put some responsibility of the political disaster on the PML-Q as well. The former No: 2 of the ISI called for the closure of political cell in the agency, confessing that it was part of the problem due to its involvement in forging unnatural alliances, contrary to public wishes. Zamir’s blaming Musharraf for creating this unnatural alliance rings true as another former top associate of Musharraf, Lt-Gen (retd) Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani has already disclosed that majority of the corps commanders, in several meetings, had opposed Musharraf’s decision of patronising the leadership of the King’s party. “We had urged Musharraf many times during the corps commanders meeting that the PML-Q leadership was the most condemned and castigated personalities. They are the worst politicians who remained involved in co-operative scandals and writing off loans. But Musharraf never heard our advice,” Kiyani said while recalling discussions in their high profile meetings.

REFERENCE: The man, who rigged 2002 polls, spills the beans By Umar Cheema Sunday, February 24, 2008 http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=13159

He said one of their colleagues, who was an accountability chief at that time, had sought permission many times for proceeding against the King’s party top leaders but was always denied. Kiyani asked Musharraf to quit, the sooner the better, as otherwise the country would be in a serious trouble. Ma-Gen (retd) EhteshamZamir termed the 2008 elections ‘fairer than 2002’. He said the reason behind their fairness is that there was relatively less interference of intelligence agencies this time as compared to the last time. But he stopped short of saying that there was zero interference in the 2008 polls. “You are quite right,” he said when asked to confirm about heavy penetration of ISI into political affairs during the 2002 elections. But he said he did not do it on his own but on the directives issued by the government.

Asked who directed him from the government side and if there was somebody else, not President Musharraf, he said: “Obviously on the directives of President Musharraf.” Asked if he then never felt that he was committing a crime by manipulating political business at the cost of public wishes, he said: “Who should I have told except myself. Could I have asked Musharraf about this? I was a serving officer and I did what I was told to do. I never felt this need during the service to question anyone senior to me,” he said and added that he could not defend his acts now.

“It was for this reason that I have never tried to preach others what I did not practice. But I am of the view that the ISI’s political cell should be closed for good by revoking executive orders issued in 1975,” he said. Responding to a question regarding corruption cases that were used as pressure tactics on lawmakers, he said: “Yes! This tool was used, not only by the ISI. The NAB was also involved in this exercise.” Former corps commander of Rawalpindi, Lt-Gen (retd) Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani said majority of corps commanders had continued opposing Musharraf’s alliance with top leadership of the PML-Q. “Not just in one meeting, we opposed his alignment with these corrupt politicians in many meetings but who cared. Now Musharraf has been disgraced everywhere, thanks to his political cronies.”

REFERENCE: The man, who rigged 2002 polls, spills the beans
By Umar Cheema Sunday, February 24, 2008 http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=13159

LAHORE: Former Intelligence Bureau (IB) chief Brigadier (r) Imtiaz said Operation Midnight Jackal was launched to topple Benazir Bhutto’s government, Dunya TV reported on Thursday. Talking to the channel, he said the operation was not a big issue, but the politicians had politicised it. He revealed that General (r) Aslam Beg, the army chief at the time, wanted to bring a change in the National Assembly through a no-confidence motion with the help of Operation Midnight Jackal, as General Beg believed that Benazir Bhutto’s policies were contrary to those of the army. He said General Beg did not agree to Benazir’s Afghan policy. The former IB chief said after Benazir Bhutto was sworn in as prime minister, General Beg and then president Ghulam Ishaq Khan had discussed at length the possibility of replacing her, adding that the operation was also launched for that reason. Brigadier (r) Imtiaz said his major mistake was his failure to refuse to obey General Beg’s orders. During a subsequent inquiry, General (r) Hameed Gul advised him not to speak against the army chief as that could raise questions about the army, he maintained. Brigadier (r) Imtiaz told the channel that he was retired on the directions of General (r) Naseerullah Babar. General (r) Asif Nawaz Janjua had suspected Imtiaz of tapping the former’s phone calls, the ex-IB chief said. Imtiaz said stayed quiet throughout his service since he did not want his institution defamed. He said president Ghulam Ishaq had offered him to join his “gang” and offered him privileges, as a cold war for power was raging between Nawaz Sharif and the then president. He said he had been meeting both the leaders and tried bring them together. The former IB chief said he was also blamed for convincing General (r) Akhtar Abdul Rehman to join then president Ziaul Haq on the flight to Bahawalpur at the eleventh hour, whereas the names of those going to Bahawalpur had already been finalised in the General Headquarters.

REFERENCE: ‘Midnight Jackal’ was launched to overthrow Benazir: Imtiaz Daily Times Monitor Friday, August 28, 2009 http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\08\28\story_28-8-2009_pg1_4

Politician bribery case pending for last 14 years: Asghar Khan
Monday February 15, 2010 06:36PM

http://www.dunyanews.tv/newsite/main_category.php?nid=10942&catid=2&flag=d

‘On August 10 2002, Asghar addressed a letter to the succeeding CJP, Sheikh Riaz Ahmad, its subject ‘HRC No.19/96, Air Marshal (R) Mohammad Asghar Khan versus General (R) Mirza Aslam Beg’. ‘It reads: ‘I should like to draw you attention to my letter MAK/12/5 addressed to your predecessor on 8 April 2000 requesting that the above case may please be reopened. I have received no reply to this letter and elections are due on 10 October 2002. Many of the people who are guilty of misconduct will, if the case is not heard, be taking part in the elections and the purpose of those elections will thus be defeated. I would request an early hearing and decision in this case.’ There was no response. Justice slept.’

Many of the people guilty of gross misconduct and corruption did take part in the elections and sat in our assemblies and Senate from 2002 to 2007, and many still sit after the 2008 elections. President Gen Pervez Musharraf admitted after the 2002 elections that he was helpless before the ‘system’, the parliamentary form of governance, and presumably a dishonest and corrupted election commission. He told the people that he had no option but to have in his government rogues, robbers and other criminal elements who should rightly be behind bars. We are sure that President Asif Ali Zardari holds the same opinion about the last elections which brought his party and then him to power. The indefatigable warrior, Asghar Khan, did his bit prior to the 2008 elections. Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, after being declared non-functional in March 2007 was fully restored on July 20, 2007 by a Supreme Court order. On Aug 8, 2007 Asghar addressed a letter to him on the subject of HRC 19/96: ‘Sir, I seek your indulgence. My petition No.19 filed in 1996 is pending in the Supreme Court. I should be greatly obliged if you would kindly order that it be urgently heard and adjudged. I may mention that I am now 86 years of age. Thanking you in anticipation.’ Nov 3, 2007 intervened. But now, CJP Chaudhry is back and firing broadsides. Will he please resume the hearing of the battling octogenarian’s petition — a matter of concern and much importance?

REFERENCE: Let justice awaken By Ardeshir Cowasjee Sunday, 30 Aug, 2009 http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/columnists/ardeshir-cowasjee-let-justice-awaken-089

Those who took money:

The recipients included Khar 2 million,

Hafeez Pirzada 3 million,

Sarwar Cheema 0.5 million

Mairaj Khalid 0.2 million

5,05,680″ (advocate Mirza Adil Beg, Aslam Beg’s nephew, the then president of the KBA, confirms that the KBA received the money)

In January 1992 USD 20,000 was sold @ 26.50 and 5,30,000 was credited to the account. Thereafter all debits: “Arshi c/o Gen. Baig (sic.) 2,90,000; Cash paid to Gen. Shab 2,40,000; Cash Friends 1,00,000 [Aslam Beg's organization, FRIENDS, Foundation for Research on National Development and Security]; Cash TT to Yamin to pay Gen. Shab 3,00,000; Cash TT to Yamin Habib 12,00,000 ; Cash Friends 1,00,000 ; Cash Friends 1,00,000 ; Cash paid through YH 10,00,000 ; Cash Friends TT to Salim Khan 2,00,000 ; Cash 1,00,000 ; Cash Towards Friends 5,00,000 ; Cash Asif Shah for Benglow 35,000 ; Cash Friends 1,00,000 ; Cash Friends 1,00,000 ; Cash TT through Yamin for Friends 1,00.000 ; Cash paid to Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim 2,00,000 [he confirms having received the money from General Beg as fees and expenses for defending him in the contempt of court charge brought against him - PLD 1993 SC310] ; Cash paid through TT to Yamin for Friends ; Cash paid to Fakhruddin G Ebrahim 1,28,640 [he confirms receipt for fees/expenses for contempt case] ; Cash Guards at 11-A 10,500 ; Cash TT for USD 240,000 Fav. Riaz Malik to City Bank (sic.) New York 68,76,000 ; Cash Friends 1,00,000; Cash Guards at 11-A 10,500 ; Cash Mjr. Kiyani 10,000; Cash mobile phone for Col. Mashadi 28,911 ; Cash TT fav. Qazi Iqbal and M Guddul 3,00,000 ; Cash Mjr. Kiyani 10,000 ; Cash TT to Peshawar 3,00,000 ; Cash deposited at Karachi A/C EC [Election Commission] 3,00,000 ; Cash Guards 24,000 ; Cash TT to Quetta 7,00,000 ; Cash mobile bill of Col. Mashadi 3,237 ; Cash TT to Peshawar Br. 4,00,000 ; Cash deposited at Karachi Br. 4,00,000 ; Cash Guards 11,520 ; Cash TT to Peshawar for EC 2,00,000 ; Cash TT to Quetta for EC 2,00,000 ; Cash Guards 5,760 ; Cash Mjr. Kiyani 5,000 ; Cash A/C Guards 8,640 ; Cash th. YH 2,00,000 ; Cash A/C Guards 5,760 ; Cash TT to Salim Khan 1,00,000.”

Nawaz Sharif received (in rupees) 3.5 million,

Lt General Rafaqat [GIK's election cell] 5.6 million,

Mir Afzal 10 million,

Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi 5 million,

Jam Sadiq Ali 5 million,

Mohammed Khan Junejo 2.5 million,

Pir Pagaro 2 million,

Abdul Hafeez Pirzada 3 million,

Yusuf Haroon 5 million [he confirms having received this for Altaf Hussain of the MQM],

Muzaffar Hussain Shah 0.3 million,

Abida Hussain 1 million,

Humayun Marri 5.4 million.

Jamaat-i-Islami Rs 5 million,

Altaf Hussain Qureshi and Mustafa Sadiq Rs 0.5 million,

Arbab Ghulam Aftab Rs 0.3 million,

Pir Noor Mohammad Shah Rs 0.3 million,

Arbab Faiz Mohammad Rs 0.3 million,

Arbab Ghulam Habib Rs 0.2 million,

Ismail Rahu Rs 0.2 million,

Liaquat Baloch Rs 1.5 million,

Jam Yusuf Rs 0.75 million,

Nadir Magsi Rs 1 million,

Ghulam Ali Nizamani Rs 0.3 million,

Ali Akbar Nizamani Rs 0.3 million.

General Mirza Aslam Beg Rs 140 million;

Jam Sadiq Ali (the then chief minister of Sindh) Rs 70 million;

Altaf Hussain (MQM) Rs 20 million, Advocate Yousaf Memon ( for disbursement to Javed Hashmi, MNA, and others) Rs.50 million;

1992 – Jam Sadiq Ali Rs 150 million;

1993 – Liaquat Jatoi Rs .01 million;

1993 – chief minister of Sindh, through Imtiaz Sheikh Rs 12 million;

Afaq of the MQM Rs 0.5 million;

1993 chief minister of Sindh, through Imtiaz Sheikh, Rs. 01. million;

1993 – Ajmal Khan, a former federal minister, Rs 1.4 million;

1993 – Nawaz Sharif, former prime minister, Rs 3.5 million;

27/9/93 Nawaz Sharif, former prime minister, Rs 2.5 million;

26/9/93 Jam Mashooq Rs 0.5 million;

26/9/93 Dost Mohammad Faizi Rs 1 million;

Jam Haider Rs 2 million;

Jam Mashooq Rs 3 million;

Adnan, son of Sartaj Aziz, Rs 1 million;

Nawaz Sharif and Ittefaq Group of Companies Rs 200 million

Sardar Farooq Leghari 12/12/93 (payment set/off) Rs 30 million – 6/1/94 Rs 2.0856 million – 19/3/94 Rs 1.92 million.” REFERENCES: We never learn from history – 10 (September 2, 2007) We never learn from history-8 (August 19, 2007) We never learn from history – 7 (August 12, 2007) We never learn from history – 6 (August 5, 2007) We never learn from history – 6 (Oct 31, 2004) We never learn from history-5 (Aug 25, 2002) We never learn from history-4 (Aug 18, 2002) We never learn from history-3 (Aug 11, 2002) We never learn from history-2 (Aug 04, 2002) We never learn from history

[COURTESY: DAILY DAWN - ARDESHIR COWASJEE http://www.dawn.com/weekly/cowas/arc-cowas.htm]

RAWALPINDI: The former chief of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) Lieutenant General(R) Hameed Gul said ISI follows government directives and admitted that Islami Jamhoori Ittehad(IJI) was formed by ISI to created balance in the political scenario. Talking to Geo News, Gul said ISI played a pivotal role in the formation of IJI after which Mian Nawaz Sharif emerged as a political leader. Gul said that he had already admitted that IJI had been formed to bring political balance; therefore, enquiry should be conducted in this connection instead of creating ambiguity.

Gul says IJI formed by ISI Updated at: 1335 PST, Tuesday, August 25, 2009

http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=85714

My goodness the names keep changing but the song remains the same. Minus-One Formula became Bangladesh Model which became Caretaker Government which became Midterm Elections which became Patriotic Generals which became French Revolution which has now become Technocrats. Why don’t we just call it what it is – the pipe dream of ‘Ministers in Waiting’.

The truth is that the lists that are being circulated provide the answers that everyone already knew, even if nobody wanted to say it out loud – there’s a group of people in this country who put their personal ambitions ahead of the good of the nation.

Kamran Shafi is calling shenanigans on the whole bunch of schemers.

Most of them have been in the various and varied engineered dictatorial/caretaker/lota so-called governments of which we’ve seen more than our fair share; governments that failed in every which way, made a bigger mess of things every single time that they “rescued” us, and after whose failure and subsequent departure the political leaders thrown out came back into the assemblies with larger majorities than they had when they were shown the door.

So why are these names making it to the lists being “prepared and finalised” when they were such abject failures in their earlier incarnations as ministers and advisers to dictators? It is not as if manna fell from heaven when they were ruling the roost, nor was there a chicken in every pot in the land. So, who are these people that pop up every now and again whenever the Deep State decides democracy has to take yet another setback?

No prizes for guessing, reader, for the matter is a simple one for any Pakistani who knows the shenanigans of the powers that be in the Land of the Pure: they are the handmaidens of the Deep State, who are always waiting in the wings in the ‘sit/stay’ position, ready to leap at the next command. They are the darlings of the establishment, the actual inheritors of this country who can do no wrong, who are pure as driven snow. And whose acts of omission and commission when in (extra-legal) occupation of their offices have never been inquired into, let alone being prosecuted. Never mind that one of them virtually bankrupted Pakistan Railways.

All of this ‘technocrat’ nonsense is simply marketing. It’s a new name for the same old soap that didn’t clean anything the first time.

Mosharraf Zaidi is right on this one, we need to be realistic and stop listening to the marketing schemes of these ministers in waiting.

No matter how good a technocrat is, she or he has no stake in the system of governance. A good, honest technocrat can fly in, fix what seems broken, and leave. Technocrats are not responsible for sustaining an overarching system, they are responsible only for the small domain they occupy. The sustenance and vitality of change and reform in Pakistan is wholly dependent on this country’s civil service. The fact that there is no public discourse, on what changes this essential national resource required to meet today’s challenges, should worry us all deeply.

So why are the people calling for change? Oh, that’s right…they’re not.

Actually, the only people you really see calling for change are the ministers in waiting who use every possible chance to exploit something to mislead people and get small groups of their supporters worked up in an effort to build their own political base. Again, from Kamran Shafi’s column…

Let us see who wants this so-called ‘change’? I see no great demonstrations in the streets, neither against provincial nor the federal governments. So why this tsunami, this cacophony for ‘change’? What, and who, drives this demand? Again no prizes for guessing: it is the Deep State itself which wants this change primarily to puncture the democratic balloon one more time and relegate rule by parliament to the backstage so that any advances made are brought to naught. And, secondly, wants to have absolutely untrammelled suzerainty over foreign affairs as the Afghanistan imbroglio heats up. The Deep State would want no interference whatever from an independent parliament as it goes about playing the Great Game, no matter how disastrously.

Far from wanting change, the people of NA-194 elected Khadija Waran. The people elected Jamshed Dasti. This drives the ministers in waiting crazy because they want their turn at the plate, and are not of any concern what the people want. Well, maybe if they spent more time listening to the people and less time lecturing everyone they would get elected to something other than head of their dinner club.

That’s not to say that the people don’t want progress – the people do want progress. But these ministers in waiting and their puppets in the right-wing media are trying to take the country back in time. Remember, these are the same people that complain about wanting to restore “the prestige and dignity” to the parliament. They see the common people as below them.

If these ministers in waiting actually get their way, Babar Ayaz asks, “what will change for the common man?”

Again, what will change for the common man? All we do is run around in circles. Nothing in this formula helps in bringing inflation down, fiscal deficit cut, relief for the flood affected people and bringing terrorism and sectarianism under control. People may argue that the change will bring in an efficient and less corrupt government. But past experience shows that no revolutionary change is possible at present; genuine change should come but through the natural process of democratic evolution. As a matter of fact, the right course should be to keep pressing for better governance and exposing corruption as it is being done at present and wait for the next elections that are not that far away. This would help in focusing on the real problems instead of politicking for quick gains.

We would be wise to follow Babar’s advice. “Genuine change should come but through the natural process of democratic evolution”.

Source: NewPakistan

President Hamid Karzai casts his ballot at a voting station in Kabul.

Mustafa Sarwar of RFE/RL’s Radio Free Afghanistan spoke today with Jed Ober, chief of staff of U.S.-based Democracy International, which sent a team of observers to monitor Afghanistan’s second parliamentary elections on September 18. Democracy International focuses on democracy and governance programs around the world for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and other development partners.

RFE/RL: How many observers did Democracy International send out to monitor the parliamentary elections?

Jed Ober: We fielded 80 international observers in 15 provinces throughout the country yesterday.

Ober: Well, it seemed yesterday that, where we were able to observe, that IEC [Independent Election Commission] staff in polling stations were perhaps more prepared than they were in [the presidential election in] 2009. There were some small operational issues, such as problems with hole punchers used to puncture voter registration cards. However, we didn’t observe any systematic irregularities across the country.

RFE/RL: We had reports saying that some Afghan candidates had printed fake poll cards ahead of the elections in Pakistan’s northern city of Peshawar. Have you spotted any such cards during your observations?

Ober: We did not observe directly the use of any fake voter registration cards in polling stations. It’s important I think, though, to remember that Afghan voters could reasonably have four voter registration cards just simply from the voter registration processes which have taken place here  in 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2010.

There are multiple registration cards all over Afghanistan and that’s why the Independent Election Commission has instituted a variety of additional safeguards to protect against multiple voting.

RFE/RL: With regards to the September 18 elections, in which more than 2,500 candidates took part, to what extent has democracy really taken root in Afghanistan?

Ober: Well, there are extremely positive signs. The initial indications are that 4 million ballots were cast yesterday. That is a very encouraging number if it ultimately proves to be true. The actual institution — the Wolesi Jirga, which is the lower house of parliament, whose members faced election yesterday — there was a very vibrant campaign period so that people could represent their constituencies in the institution.

The election was critically important for Afghanistan’s democracy. The Wolesi Jirga has been, perhaps, the only institution which has displayed some balance to executive authority in the country. And over the past year, they have put this on display a number of times, in voting against President [Hamid] Karzai’s cabinet nominees, in voting down the president’s electoral law decree, and in voting down particular portions of the president’s budget.

So the institution has been one of the bright spots in Afghan democracy. And I think in areas where it was secure yesterday, voters were able to go out to vote and they were enthusiastic in the process, and those are all positive signs for Afghanistan’s democracy.

RFE/RL: But at the same time, reports are talking about spotty turnout, the usage of fake registration cards and fake ink during the elections. If these reports are true and these elections turn out to be as messy and contested as the 2009 presidential election was, how will it affect international support for Karzai’s government?

Ober: Well, what is certainly true is that there’s much that remains to be discovered about this election process. At the current time, observation organizations like Democracy International are collecting information from their observers. We’ll collect reports from open source information, and then we will do our best to verify these reports.

At this point, I think it’s too early to make any type of broad claim that this election process was either successful or detrimental. The next few days and the coming results tabulation period will help us to determine whether this is true or not.

Source: Radio free Europe radio liberty

‘I want to congratulate all Afghans on the completion of successful parliamentary elections,’ Fazel Ahmad Manawi, chief of the Independent Elections Commission, a body that conducted Saturday’s polls, said in a press conference.

The Taliban claimed that its fighters attacked around 150 polling sites across Afghanistan on Saturday, but Afghan defence minister said the militants had managed to launch significantly fewer attacks than last year’s presidential elections.

Saturday’s polls saw 305 violent incidents. That compares to 422 incidents during presidential voting on August 20, 2009, which was also marred by massive fraud, Abdul Rahim Wardak said.

A total of 11 civilians, four security personnel and 27 Taliban members were killed in blasts and firefights shortly after the voting began in the country’s 34 provinces, security officials said.

Afghan officials also said Saturday’s attacks were not serious enough to derail the vote.

‘Despite the heightened threats and despite utmost efforts which were put in place to prevent the Afghan people from going to polling stations … the elections were held in nearly normal situation throughout the country,’ Waheed Omar, chief spokesman for President Hamid Karzai told reporters.

The Free and Fair Election Foundations of Afghanistan (FEFA), an independent watchdog that deployed around 7,000 observers to most of the vote centres, also said that the attacks were not serious enough to stop the balloting.

‘Though there were numerous attacks, none were severe enough to disrupt voting on a wide scale,’ FEFA said in a statement.

Afghans queued outside around 5,000 polling stations to cast ballots in Afghanistan’s second parliamentary elections since the ouster of the Taliban by US-led forces in late 2001.

However, election officials said turnout picked up toward the second half of the day, after initial reports showing it remaining light throughout the country because the Taliban managed to scare off many voters.

Manawi put the voter turnout at around 40 per cent for nearly 90 per cent of the polling sites, but said that that percentage could change as reports from the rest of the centres are provides.

He said that more than 3.6 million voters cast their ballots in 4,632 stations out of 5,335 sites that were estimated to have been opened.

Karzai, who cast his ballot in a polling station in Kabul, urged Afghans to brave the attacks and come out and vote.

‘As in every election, we do hope that there will be high voter turnout and nobody is deterred by security incidents, which I am sure there will be some,’ he said.

Security forces were on high alert as around 63,000 soldiers and 52,000 police have been deployed to all the sites to provide security.

At least 1,000 voting stations remained shut and officials said that it was too dangerous to hold elections in nine districts.

The Afghan security officials continued to hold their position throughout the day by assuring people that it was safe to come out and vote.

‘Saying security is guaranteed is a big word,’ Staffan de Mistura, the top United Nations envoy to the country said Saturday. ‘Many precautions have … taken place, never have there been so many precautions as today, but security remains a major concern.’

Saturday’s vote is seen as the latest effort in a US-led process to bring democracy to the country, following last year’s presidential election, which was marred by violence and massive fraud.

About 150,000 US and NATO troops are trying to implement a counterinsurgency strategy aimed at turning the tide of nearly nine years of war against the insurgents.

The vote is also a big test of credibility for Karzai, who was re- elected in last year’s fraud-scarred elections.

Candidates and independent observers warned that a repeat of fraud was possible as fake voting cards were sold across the country prior to the elections. Millions of phony cards were said to have been printed in Pakistan.

Afghan security forces seized more than 65,000 fake voter registration cards on Saturday, while allegations of fraud – including ballot-stuffing by electoral workers in favors of certain candidates and underage voting – were reported across Afghanistan.

‘A large number of fake voter registration cards that were intended to be used were identified and seized,’ Manawi told reporters after the balloting ended at 4 pm (1130 GMT).

He confirmed that, in some polling stations, the indelible ink, which was used by the election commission to mark voters’ fingers to guard against double voting, could easily be washed off.

‘Ink quality was a widespread problem, with voters able to easily wash the ink off their fingers in at least 2,950 polling centers in half a dozen provinces,’ FEFA said in its statement.

More than 2,500 candidates are vying for 249 seats in the lower house of parliament, the Wolesi Jirga. Among them are a total of 406 women contesting for 68 seats allocated for them by the country’s post-Taliban constitution.

Initial results were expected by early next month, while the final verified results were due to be announced around the end of October.

Election officials said final results could be delayed because a UN-backed complaint commission is expected to look into thousands of allegations of fraud and complaints, mainly from losing candidates.

Source: m&c

Read Part 1 of this article here

This article is part of the same article posted here with the title “Political Homosexuality“. I have posted it as a separate article for its comments on Establishment equations and understanding of Pakistan power politics.(aliarqam)

Time to rethink the concept of the powerful establishment in Pakistan. Although it is a complex subject on which serious work was not done after the great sociologist Hamza Alavi or American political sociologist Stanley Kochanek (sadly both are now dead), I would like to lay down some basic perimeters of the country’s power politics and contours of the establishment.

First, as argued by well-respected authors like Mohammad Waseem, Pakistan’s polity is really bureaucratic in nature. The state bureaucracy, from the early days, had a game plan for the state according to which politics, politicians and political parties were to be used to seek legitimacy from the public. This is also the reason that the military bureaucracy allows a civilian interlude every ten years. Also, it explains why the politicians tend not to learn from their past mistakes. Power, including electoral power, is always carefully manipulated. Most politicians understand that the electoral process is primed to meet the demands of the establishment except for in a post-crisis election. The formula is that every election after a crisis is likely to be fairer than the one held in relatively normal circumstances. For example, the 1970, 1988 and 2008 elections were comparatively fairer. In the absence of a crisis it is easier to distract the un-motivated voter to sift through the results.

Second, as Hamza Alavi argued, the state bureaucracy (civil and military) was meant to service the interests of the elite. I would argue that the over-concentration of power resulted in turning the civil and military bureaucracy into powerful stakeholders (for those interested in data-based analysis plz see Stanley Kochanek’s book on Pakistan’s Politics and Interest Groups).

Third, at this juncture the establishment or the power elite is closely connected with each other through personal ties and shared interests and values. Just look at different powerful families. One example that quickly comes to mind is that of the Abida Hussain clan which has stakes in the political system, the media (through Najam Sethi/Jugnoo Mohsin group), business and industry (Syed Babur Ali), the military and the civil bureaucracy. Another angle – you will find members from the same family in different political parties as well as the state bureaucracy, the media, judiciary and other powerful groups. So, they tend to fight each other and use the conflict to gain legitimacy. This explains why the political leadership never managed to get rid of the army nor the army could ever succeed to bring about alternative leadership.

Therefore, I’d like to argue that the powerful establishment always comprises of a primary group which is aided by a secondary group of beneficiaries. Its the prime actors who form the core of the establishment. Since the birth of the country, there has been a lot of juggling between the primary and secondary players until the group began to consolidate its shape in the past couple of decades or more. A glance at the following table will give some idea about the partnership:

1947-54: (primary) LF+TIs+CB+Mil
(secondary) TMs+PMIs+LC+Media

1954-71: (Primary) Mil+CB+LF+TIs+B&I
(Secondary) LC+PMIs+Media

1971-77: (Primary) LF+TIs+CB+Mil
(Secondary) Mil+B&I+LC+Media+PMIs

1977-88: (Primary) Mil+CB+PMIs
(Secondary) LF+TIs+LC+Media

1988-99: (Primary) Mil+B&I+CB+PMIs
(Secondary) LF+TIs+Media+LC

1999-01 (Primary) Mil+B&I+CB+PMIs+Media
(Secondary) LF+TIs+LC+NGOSec+ForExp

2001-08 (Primary) Mil+B&I+CB+Media+PMIs
(Secondary) LF+TIs+LC

2008-todate (Primary) Mil+B&I+CB+Media+LC
(Secondary) LF+TIs+NGOSec+ForExp

LF = landed-feudal
Mil = Military
TMs = Trader-Merchant class
B&I = Business and Industry
CB = civil bureaucracy
LC = legal community (a glance at Kochanek’s work will show that the legal community was always part of the power elite. They were included in the initial legislatures and played a more formal role in the form of the judiciary)
TIs = Traditional Islamiscts (pirs and sajjada nasheens)
PMIs = Post-modernist Islamiscts (religious right and religious warriors)
NGOSec = non-governmental sector
ForExp = Elite foreign expatriates that are increasingly becoming partners of the state bureaucracy and frequently channel money into military sponsored projects abroad. These connections are useful especially in terms of financing positions and endowments abroad that will service the interest of the bureaucracy.

A careful look at this power arrangement and you will notice how state bureaucracy has always been a member of the core/primary. This includes the Bhutto years when the military was resuscitating and the civil bureaucracy became tremendously powerful due to its expanded role in business and industrial management. Also, the media was always on board. The first paper Dawn had state-sponsorship and its editorial was always close to the state including after the change from the right to left of center. Its just that the center (after 1971) was aligned with the left as well, or at least seemingly so. Then there was Pakistan Times, the Nawa-i-Waqt group, Massawat, etc. After its physical expansion the media has begun to play a more important role. While the ownership was always aligned with the establishment, especially state bureaucratic forces, in recent years the editorial has largely managed to align itself as well. No wonder, the pay commission issue is never resolved.

The problem with the above alignment is that the elite become myopic and predatory and begin to inadvertently destroy the state. They have managed to damage the nation-state and all we are now left with is the administrative-state. This structure results in generating a clogged-up political system reeking of stench because political power does not move around and is concentrated in a small space. Much to the dislike of my alleged leftist friends, the current fad of militancy is actually a result of the above-described political heterosexuality and muck. Violence is natural in a socio-polity where all legitimate means to re-negotiate power are dead or tightly-controlled. This is not to suggest that the Deobandi-Salafi-Wahabi jihadis are the future. They, of course, have a central place in the core group of the establishment and may partly replace the elite in different parts of the state, if not the entire country. But more important, they will prosper considering that the existing elite have mostly seemed to turn into bloody hijras. I would like to apologize from the actual physical hijras because they may have more balls in them than their political counterparts.

PS: If you think the above table needs modification, plz suggest and lets have a good discussion. An analysis of the sociology of power politics is crucial for understanding the country’s political future.

Source: Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa Blog